Forecasting Errors in Time-Series Analysis
When we use the word error we are referring to the difference between the forecast value and what actually occurred. So long as the forecast value is within the confidence limits as we discuss below in Measurement of Error this is not really an error. However common u age refers to the difference as an error. Demand generated through the interaction of a number of factors that are either too complex to describe accurately in a model or are not readily identifiable. Therefore, all
forecasts contain some degree of error. In discussing forecast errors. it is important to distinguish between sources of error and the measurement of error:
